Juan Soto is again in the brightest spotlight as Major League Baseball’s executives congregate for the winter meetings in Dallas.

But he is on the stage without the Padres this time.

A year ago in Nashville, the Padres and Yankees conspired to provide the only significant news at baseball’s annual December gathering. Soto was sent to the Yankees along with Trent Grisham in exchange for five players. That swap served to benefit both teams immensely, but those winter meetings were otherwise widely considered to have been among the most unremarkable in recent memory.

Soto is a free agent now, and there is a growing sense the coming days may see him sign a gargantuan contract — perhaps rivaling the total value of the $700 million deal signed by Shohei Ohtani last offseason.

In fact, the feeling is that, with movement near the top end of the free-agent market already underway, this year’s winter meetings could be full of action — and transactions.

“It won’t be nothing, like last year (was),” said one agent whose firm represents several dozen players.

While Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller has a penchant for maneuvering the club into the news this time of year, the Padres aren’t likely to be at the center of the most significant scuttle generated at the Hilton Anatole.

The buzziest topics are the recently floated idea of a “golden at-bat,” Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki’s imminent posting and the behemoth that is the Dodgers.

The nascent “golden at-bat” idea would allow teams to select one player per game to bat out of order in a crucial situation. However, any movement on that historic rule change is likely years away.

Despite rampant rumors and theories dating back more than a year that had Sasaki all but already agreed to sign with the Dodgers, the Padres have always felt landing the right-hander was a real possibility. But Sasaki is not expected to sign with an MLB team until at least mid-January.

And there really isn’t anything anyone can do about the Dodgers.

So some of the substantive news emanating from this week could be movement with Soto and the most-coveted free agents that are not Soto. That would be a list led by starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Max Fried and infielders Willy Adames, Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman.

The Padres are not playing at that level this offseason.

They have been researching and debating potential free agents and trade targets for months and have intensified those efforts in recent weeks. Preller and his top lieutenants have been talking with agents and fellow executives and expect to advance those discussions in Dallas.

Moves are coming. But there remain budget considerations.

Players under team control for 2025 are due around $210 million. There have been strong indications that payroll number will be lower by opening day, meaning the Padres have some maneuvering to do in the way of trades and/or long-term contracts that would trim money owed for the upcoming season.

The Padres’ payroll is still expected to increase from 2024’s season-ending $169 million mark. The organization is cognizant it must continue winning in order to maintain the current level of fan interest and investment. Club officials have repeatedly vowed to fund a contending team year in and year out for the foreseeable future.

Their recent commitments suggest they mean it.

Without making a single significant move for 2025, their roster would seem capable of being competitive.

They have three frontline starters, including two (Dylan Cease and Michael King) that finished in the top seven in National League Cy Young voting. Six of their nine spots in the batting order are seemingly set, filled by players still in their prime playing years and capable of being among the National League leaders in multiple offensive categories. Their bullpen has enough back-end arms to instill confidence at the start of spring.

But that is not enough.

Not for Preller. Not in the National League West. Not even in the NL as a whole, where all but the Marlins and Rockies at least act like they plan to be in contention and at least 10 teams appear capable of challenging for one of the league’s six postseason spots.

For the Padres to legitimately be among the teams with a chance, they have to fill some holes.

The Padres need another starting pitcher. With Cease, King, Yu Darvish, Randy Vásquez and Matt Waldron in the fold, they could be OK adding a back-of-the-rotation piece. But the Padres are also talking about supplementing the top.

The club says it will not part with its top two prospects, shortstop Leo DeVries and catcher Ethan Salas, both of whom could be regulars by 2026. Virtually anyone else is considered movable. The Padres are light on talent that is close to the majors but rich in pitching at the lower levels. Other teams seem to have more to entice the White Sox, who seem intent on trading ace Garrett Crochet. But the Padres could be players for the Rays’ Zack Littell, the Marlins’ Jesus Luzardo, the Brewers’ Aaron Civale and others.

It is a certainty now that the Padres need a catcher — and perhaps two — after Kyle Higashioka signed with the Rangers last week. It seems as likely Luis Campusano, who finished the season in Triple-A after beginning it as the primary starter, will be packaged in a trade as be in spring training with the Padres. There is no readily apparent offensive upgrade but plenty of average catchers available via trade and on the free agent market, and the Padres have cast a wide net.

It remains possible Jurickson Profar returns to the Padres, though there is evidently broad interest in the veteran who is coming off his best season. There has been no reliable indication where the team will turn if Profar goes elsewhere.

The Padres expect the coming days to provide movement toward these aims and for talks to advance on other fronts.

Originally Published: December 7, 2024 at 12:44 PM PST