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Christmas is fast approaching, so what better time is there to put together a naughty and nice list for the NFL, at least as it pertains to fantasy football.
Otherwise, this column would read like a tabloid or a police blotter.
Naughty
- Injuries: Never have so few teams been decimated by so many injuries. If the Lions, 49ers and Saints could combine their injured reserve lists, they could probably field a team capable of competing for a playoff spot any other year (assuming they could stay healthy).
- Deebo Samuel: If you’re going to complain about not getting touches, you absolutely cannot drop multiple balls, including a potential touchdown, the very next game. Sorry, I don’t make the rules. Since Brandon Aiyuk went down with a season-ending knee injury in Week 7, Samuel is the overall WR74 in standard formats (WR73 in PPR) with only 23 receptions for 234 yards and no TDs in the last seven games.
- Browns brain trust: They’ve reserved a place on this list the last three years for forcing us to watch Deshaun Watson’s failed attempt at living up to $230 million guaranteed after his lewd fall from grace. And now they rob us of the potential laser light show Jameis Winston and Joe Burrow could’ve put on. All in the name of seeing what they have in Dorian Thompson-Robinson? We ask for so little.
- Amari Cooper and Cooper Kupp: Zero. Zilch. Nil. Naught. Cooper, Kupp and I scored the same amount of fantasy points last week, except the difference is, I didn’t get anyone eliminated from the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
- Referees: They don’t make a stocking big enough to fit all of the coal they deserve.
Nice
- Bengals stacks: Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have single-handedly carried me in multiple season-long fantasy leagues, and have been the gift that keeps on giving for so many of us. In the one league I also have Cincy running back Chase Brown, it feels unfair. Only Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts have scored more fantasy points than Burrow at QB, and Chase has been the top wide receiver across all formats. Brown is the overall RB6 in standard formats (RB5 in PPR) since Week 4.
- Rookie QBs: Jayden Daniels (QB6) and Bo Nix (QB9) have been top-10 options through the first 15 weeks of their first season in the NFL. Caleb Williams (QB15) has had his moments and outscored the likes of Jordan Love, Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud so far. Drake Maye is the overall QB12 since he was installed as New England’s starter in Week 6 and Michael Penix Jr. finally gets to show why I believed he was the most pro-ready signal-caller in last April’s draft against the Giants on Sunday in his NFL debut with the Falcons.
- Change of scenery: Seven of the top-20 running backs in fantasy were all veterans signed in free agency, playing in their first season with their new team, highlighted by Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon.
- Taysom Hill: It’s been a little more than a month since Hill’s ridiculous performance against the Cleveland Browns, where he carried seven times for a career-high 138 yards with a career-high-tying three TDs, including a career-high 75-yard score. He also caught a career-high eight passes for 50 yards, completed a pass for an 18-yard gain and returned a kickoff 42 yards to finish with 188 total scrimmage yards and 230 all-purpose yards, both (you guessed it) career-highs. Hill also made sure all of the footballs were properly inflated, refilled all of the Gatorade and operated a concession stand when the Browns had the ball.
- Jahmyr Gibbs: I’m not here to tell you need to play Gibbs this week … unless you’re not planning on playing Gibbs this week. You should absolutely play Gibbs this week. What were you thinking?
Happy Holidays to you and yours!
The Preamble
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.
On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.
Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.25 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.
The Optimal Lineup has netted $207.86 this season, so I’m in the red $67.14 with an average score of 132.44 points through 15 weeks.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 90.16
Week 2: 144.38
Week 3: 100.38
Week 4: 180.78
Week 5: 147.14
Week 6: 126.72
Week 7: 132.98
Week 8: 114.84
Week 9: 168.48
Week 10: 97.16
Week 11: 138.58
Week 12: 109.78
Week 13: 106.92
Week 14: 187.28
Week 15: 140.96
Week 16 Lineup
QB: Caleb Williams, Bears ($5,500)
Williams is the overall QB9 since Week 12 completing 62.1% of his passes for 921 yards and eight TD passes with no interceptions and a passer rating of 100.3 in the last four games. He’s also added 102 yards on 18 carries over that span, which could come into play against Detroit’s depleted defense that almost exclusively plays man coverage.
RB: Saquon Barkley, Eagles ($8,300)
If we’re swallowing the Gibbs chalk — he’s going to be 45-60% rostered in nearly every GPP — and let me be crystal clear, you should, then we need to find a way to differentiate our lineup. One way is shoehorning Barkley in, while most of the field might find it too cost-prohibitive. Barkley needs to average about 140 yards per game to break Eric Dickerson’s long-standing single-season rushing record, and the Commanders have struggled mightily against the run.
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($7,500)
I usually make 50-to-75 lineups, and Gibbs will be in every single one this week. In three games without David Montgomery last season, Gibbs averaged 23 touches per game and finished as the RB24, RB3 and RB1.
WR: D.J. Moore, Bears ($5,700)
Best case scenario here is the Lions force Chicago into a pass-heavy game script by utilizing Gibbs, like they did on Thanksgiving, and Williams peppers his receivers with targets. Moore caught eight of 16 targets for 97 yards and a TD on Turkey Day.
WR: Keenan Allen, Bears ($5,300)
Allen finished with five receptions on eight targets for 73 yards and two TDs on Thanksgiving. Both Moore (WR7) and Allen (WR9) have been top-10 options in PPR formats since Week 12.
WR: Kendrick Bourne, Patriots ($3,400)
New England is a 14-point underdog at Buffalo, and Bourne has turned into one of Drake Maye’s favorite targets with at least three receptions in five straight games. It’ll be cold, but there shouldn’t be much precipitation.
TE: Sam LaPorta, Lions ($4,700)
Stacking Gibbs with LaPorta is another way to differentiate our lineup. LaPorta will be significantly less popular this week, and I’m anticipating him playing a significant role in the red zone and goal-to-go situations with Montgomery sidelined.
FLEX: James Cook, Bills ($7,000)
Buffalo is a heavy favorite, which should lead to an increased workload, in what could be a “smash” opportunity for Cook against the Patriots’ very bad run defense.
DST: Tennessee Titans ($2,600)
The Colts’ Anthony Richardson is currently projected to be the most rostered quarterback on the main slate. Playing the opposing defense against a chalky QB is a good way to gain leverage on the field.
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