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Take it from the oddsmakers: the Padres stand among MLB’s better teams.
For all the speculation about a payroll crunch, for all the disappointment over Japanese star pitcher Roki Sasaki choosing the Dodgers, the betting lines show San Diego among the top eight candidates to win the next World Series. In the National League, which awards six playoff berths, the sports books have the Padres no worse than fifth.
A.J. Preller still has several moves to make, though.
The outcomes there could determine whether the Padres can adequately support their lineup’s enviable young tandem of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill and a rotation headed by low-salaried ace Michael King.
Will Preller bring back free agents such as left fielder Jurickson Profar and middle infielder Ha-Seong Kim?
Adding a starting pitcher or two could make sense, as would bringing in multiple relievers, a catcher and a designated hitter who can fill in at first base.
If Preller is targeting any stars, he won’t be out of his depth. Look at the big names Preller and late chairman Peter either tried to get or obtained in just the past few years: Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Josh Hader, Max Scherzer and Sasaki.
Recent history suggests the Padres can still come out OK if Preller is indeed being asked to stretch dollars, as seems to be the case.
Preller has found excellent value lately in one specific area: importing older, low-cost big leaguers.
Several of these veterans, in return, set themselves up for huge raises in free agency by far outperforming their career norms in their lone Padres season.
Just two years ago, Padres short-timers Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Gary Sanchez shone as cheap rentals, even as the club as a whole underperformed a payroll that ranked third in the big leagues.
Preller did even better with such moves last year, building out a club that would win 93 games and a playoff series with MLB’s 15th-ranked payroll. Profar, Kyle Higashioka and Donovan Solano proved to be bargains, as were co-aces King and Dylan Cease, who can become free agents next fall.
With the Padres, Wacha had his best season in six years as a 31-year-old on a $7 million salary. The payoff he got: a three-year, $51 million contract from the Royals last offseason.
At 33, Lugo rode a similar wave, playing for $7.5 million and thriving under Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla en route to shattering his personal best for innings in a season. He got a three-year, $45-million deal from the Royals.
The Wacha-Lugo model should appeal to other veterans who want to shed the “swingman” label.
Sanchez’s big-league career was on life support when Preller took a flyer on him two months into the season. The catcher, 30, rediscovered his power stroke and had his best season in four years. Paid about $1 million by the Padres, he got $3 million from the Brewers, then saw his Padres slug rate plummet.
Petco Park is relatively unfriendly to hitters. Yet three low-salaried old dudes Preller rented last season provided great value.
Profar, coming off a bad season with the Rockies, returned to the Padres for just $1 million. The switch-hitter put together a strong winter-ball season and spring camp that carried over into the season. Hitting for much more power, Profar posted a career-best .380 on-base rate. FanGraphs.com estimated Profar’s production would’ve been worth $34.4 million on the free-agent market.
As of Wednesday, Profar was still on the free-agent market.
But two of his former Padres teammates have parlayed their breakouts into big bucks.
Higashioka, 34, went from a $2.2 million salary with the Padres, who got him from the Yankees in the Soto trade, to joining the Rangers last month on a two-year, $13.5 million contract.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Padres try to replicate Higashioka’s success by getting a right-handed hitter who often pulls fastballs and sliders.
Those strengths meshed almost perfectly with Petco Park — a venue that’s otherwise mostly unfriendly to hitters. Higashioka hit 20 home runs, including three in the postseason; 13 of those drives came at Petco Park. The pull-righty’s top expected total of home runs by ballpark was 22; Petco Park was one of those three venues, joining Cincinnati’s and Philadelphia’s ballparks that, in contrast, are considered hitter-friendly.
Solano’s best asset, by far, is his ability to hit for a good batting average. The infielder hit so well for the Padres on a big-league minimum salary of $740,000 that, this month, the Mariners have signed the 37-year-old for a $3.5 million guaranteed.
The message here is this: smart shopping and some good luck can allow a payroll to punch above its weight.
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