A.J. Preller is finding traction amid a low-transaction offseason that seems to have been complicated by a budget crunch.

Start with Friday’s breakthrough: the arbitration-avoiding, one-year contract reached between Preller and Padres co-ace Michael King.

The one-year, $7.75-million deal averted a contentious hearing. The two sides figured out a payment structure that benefited both parties, enabling King — entering his contract year — to focus on his job without the hard feelings that arbitration hearings often stir up.

Despite the raise, King still profiles as a large bargain. The Padres could get good value for him if they choose to trade him before this season rather than risk losing him to an injury months before he can leave as a free agent.

Trading a modest-salaried frontline pitcher, though, would be a hard sell to a fan base that saw ticket prices go up again. The Padres could get a compensatory draft pick if King were to leave in free agency next offseason, provided the Padres make him a qualifying offer.

Plus, there’s no telling what the 2025 season could bring. Sometimes, negotiations on one-year contracts lead to the two sides brokering a multi-year deal after things calm down.

Now, let’s talk about Preller and co-ace Dylan Cease.

Already, the Padres-Cease situation stands as one of the more fascinating short chapters in club history.

Pitchers as reliable as Cease seldom get traded by a playoff contender going into a season. But it will surprise no one in baseball if Prellers deals Cease soon — perhaps very soon.

After all, when the offseason began, the Padres hinted Cease could be dealt. 

Other teams interpreted the invitation to pursue Cease as a financially driven move. Though Petco Park attendance has been robust, other financial factors may have created a squeeze that contributed to a payroll reduction last year and further challenges this offseason. The Padres’ TV partner folded two seasons ago. The club ran up payrolls that far exceeded those of most small-market teams. The ballclub ran afoul of MLB’s debt rule.

If the Padres want to add payroll later, they may have to subtract now.

Of the higher-salaried players on the team, Cease, 29, would give Preller the most trade leverage by far. FanGraphs.com projects a better season from Cease in terms of win shares than from either Max Fried or Corbin Burnes, two veterans who this offseason received free-agent contracts north of $200 million apiece.

Cease’s high strikeout rate makes him well-suited for October baseball, adding to Preller’s leverage.

Skeptics will note his two subpar outings last October in the playoff series against the Dodgers. Did fatigue bring about Cease’s imprecision? He had thrown the third-most pitches in the big leagues and was pitching on short rest for the first time in his career when the Dodgers ambushed him in Game 4 of the National League Division Series.

In posting his lowest career walk rate last season, Cease may have fixed the lone major glitch in his game.

The Cease-Padres journey dates to March, when Preller got the right-hander from the White Sox in exchange for three minor-leaguers plus reliever Steven Wilson.

Two sharp non-Padres scouts, speaking in this column at the time, predicted that Cease would have a better season than reigning Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. He did, although Snell came on strong after a bumpy first half. Aside from Cease’s nasty stuff, the scouts liked that Cease would work under pitching coach Ruben Niebla and pitch half his games in Petco Park.

Cease, who went from a team that would lose 121 games to one he would help win 93 games and earn a playoff berth, pitched a team-high 189 innings in 2024. Not just an innings-eater, he logged a 3.47 ERA and threw the franchise’s second no-hitter.

Though Cease could be streaky, he provided great value on his $8 million salary. He stands to make $13.75 million in 2025, hardly a budget-buster for a star pitcher on a contending team.

Cease has pitched at least 165 innings in each of the past four years, making him an ironman in this era’s MLB. Across the four seasons, he stands seventh in innings pitched and second in strikeout rate.

Among Cease’s reported potential suitors, the most interesting one is the Cubs, the club that drafted him in 2014. They reputedly have a high number of advanced prospects, including starting pitchers. Minor-league second baseman James Triantos, 22, has displayed rare bat control, a trait the Padres emphasized last year under manager Mike Shildt and hitting coach Victor Rodriguez.

It’s not ideal that the Padres may now feel financial pressure to trade Cease given how well have supported the franchise.

But if it has to be done, it’s good for Padres fans that Preller is the person doing it.

Preller has found great value in many deals involving pitchers. From four offseasons ago through last summer, Preller aced the trades for starting pitchers Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Cease, King and Martin Perez. He also gets high marks for his free-agent signings of pitchers Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo, who each cost less than $8 million.

Forecast: if Preller trades Cease, he’ll get more for him than the Padres gave up to get Cease from the White Sox — even though Cease now costs more and is a year closer to free agency.