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A new Associated Press men’s basketball top 25 was released Monday morning. So was the first edition of the NET computer metric that the NCAA Tournament selection committee consults.
They told vastly different stories about San Diego State.
The AP poll put the Aztecs at No. 24, one spot above two-time defending national champion Connecticut, after going 2-1 at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas with wins against previously No. 21 Creighton (by 18 points) and No. 6 Houston (in overtime). Their two losses are against No. 7 Gonzaga and No. 12 Oregon.
In the USA Today coaches poll, they’re second among others receiving votes, or de facto 27th.
And the NET? SDSU is 60th.
“I’m such a bad math student that I don’t know how those numbers work,” SDSU coach Brian Dutcher said. “I think we have the No. 1 strength of schedule and went 4-2 and are 60 in the NET. It’s early in the year. I don’t put a lot of stock in that this early. It will play out how it’s supposed to play out over the course of the season.
“We put ourselves where I felt we needed to be. To get two of the wins against those four teams (Gonzaga, Creighton, Oregon and Houston) was good enough. Obviously you always want more. I wanted all four. But the minimum to build a resume was two, and we got two.”
The other major metrics can’t make up their minds on the Aztecs, either. They are 38 in KPI, 40 in Kenpom, 44 in ESPN’s BPI and 57 in Bart Torvik’s T-rank.
Two metrics that more heavily weigh schedule strength were kinder. ESPN’s SOR (strength of record) has them at 24. WAB (wins against bubble), which this season was added to the selection committee’s list of evaluation tools, has them 21.
When the NET was first introduced in 2018-19, it wasn’t released publicly until January. In recent years, it’s been early December, and the small sample size makes for some head-scratching placements.
Utah State, which is 7-0 but hasn’t faced a top 50 opponent, is 14th in NET. Oregon, which is 8-0 and just won the loaded Players Era Festival, is 15th. UCLA, which lost to New Mexico but beat up six bottom-feeders, is 16th.
Creighton, ranked in the first four AP polls and picked to finish second in the powerhouse Big East, is 99th.
The Aztecs might have an easier time moving up the AP poll than the metrics this month. They’ll be heavy favorites in their next three games and could climb in the polls as teams above them lose. But climbing in metrics requires outperforming computer expectations, which over the next three games would require blow-out wins.
“As players, while paying attention to metrics is good, we let the coaches focus on that more and let them give us the tidbits to boost those metrics,” senior Jared Coleman-Jones said. “Let them break it down for us in film and what are those little things that we can do to be better on defense or offensive plays that can move our metrics up, because they’re looking at the numbers all day.”
Honors
Miles Byrd was named to the all-tournament team at the Players Era Festival, which was impressive considering the size of the field (eight teams) and size of the awards (only five players). He was joined by Oregon’s TJ Bamba, Alabama’s Mark Sears, Texas A&M’s Wade Taylor IV and Rutgers freshman sensation Dylan Harper.
Byrd also was named Mountain West Player of the Week for averaging 14.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks with a 3:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
“Very deserved,” Dutcher said. “Miles is having a good start to his season. Obviously, the Gonzaga game where he was coming off the sprained ankle and the cramping issues, was hard for him. But then to bounce back and play the way he did in Vegas is a credit to him. To be all-tournament with such great talent speaks to his game right now.”
Byrd is already moving on.
“It’s Monday,” he said, “so new week.”
Forward Pharaoh Compton, who had 13 points in Saturday’s win against Houston, was named Mountain West Freshman of the Week.
The bank’s open
One of the biggest plays against Houston came with 57.4 seconds left, when Coleman-Jones pump-faked from the right side, leaned into his defender and launched a 3, hoping to draw a foul. He didn’t get the whistle, but the ball banked in.
Officials went to video review and determined his foot was on the line, reducing it from a 3 to a 2 that drew the Aztecs within 65-63. They tied it 44 seconds later and forced overtime.
“It was a bit of a moment, where I was in a zone,” Coleman-Jones said. “I just felt like at the time they weren’t really able to guard me on the perimeter with my matchup. I thought I got fouled a little bit.”
Was he trying to bank it?
“After I pump-faked, I was leaning, so I shot it at glass,” he said. “I mean, I work on that.”
(Indeed, he does. He regularly practices banking in 3s to better calibrate his shot.)
Not buying it: Byrd.
“No, I definitely don’t,” he said, laughing. “But I think that was the biggest shot of the game for us, so I’m just happy he hit it.”
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