Aztecs try to gain ground in conference race as schedule softens – elcajon newson Elcajon News only

As San Diego State hosts Colorado State on Tuesday night, three days after its most lopsided loss of the season (both in score and sight), there are three numbers to keep in mind:

34;

66;

and 2.

That’s, in order, the number of Aztecs victories immediately following their last 38 losses; their win streak against Quad 3 or lower opponents; and how many Quad 1 games are currently left on the schedule.

In words: They rarely lose two straight, their NCAA Tournament resume almost never contains a “bad” loss, and the upcoming schedule softens considerably.

The NCAA’s NET metric is used as a sorting tool for the tournament selection committee, grouping your games into four quadrants based on the opponent’s standing and the game’s location. Quad 1 games are against teams ranked between 1 and 30 at home, 1 through 50 on a neutral court or 1 through 75 on the road.

Quad 1 and 2 wins are good. Quad 3 and 4 losses are bad.

Colorado State (10-6, 4-1) is 84th in the NET, making it a Quad 3 game at home.

The last time SDSU lost a Quad 3 or 4 game was 2020, when UNLV shocked a 26-0 Aztecs team at Viejas Arena.

Perspective: Eight other Mountain West teams already have a Quad 3 or 4 loss this season, including Boise State and New Mexico — the teams picked to finish first and second in the preseason media poll. The next longest streak belongs to Utah State at 36. After that, it’s UNLV at 17. No one else is in double digits.

“As a program, we respect everyone we step on the court with, whether that’s the exhibition against (Division II) Cal State San Marcos or someone else,” Miles Byrd said. “As a group, we’re never going to Hollywood somebody and under-scout them and underappreciate what they have on their team, just because we know a basketball game is not like a football game, where the power conference team is going to win every time because of their (bigger) offensive line.

“In basketball, they can come out here and hit the first five shots of the game and, the next thing you know, that team is playing with a ton of confidence. We respect all of our opponents and respect the game as well.”

In that regard, the upcoming schedule favors them. After getting Utah State at home (Quad 2) followed by a pair of Quad 1 road games (at Boise State and New Mexico), the next six look like this:

Quad 3, Quad 3, Quad 4, Quad 1 (at Nevada), Quad 4, Quad 3.

In the Kenpom predictive metric, they are currently favored in 13 of their remaining 15 games — and by nine or more points in five of the next six.

If history holds, it’s a chance for the Aztecs (10-4, 3-2) to climb back into the Mountain West race knowing that statistically the hardest home game and two of the three hardest road games are behind them. Utah State and New Mexico, which share the conference lead at 6-0, both close with four Quad 1 or 2 games in their last six.

“We have two home games now,” said SDSU coach Brian Dutcher, whose team also hosts UNLV on Saturday. “Just being at home doesn’t guarantee you a win. But if you play well at home, you have a better chance of winning, with the home environment, with the crowds we have.

“We just try to play to whatever our standard is. We don’t play to our opponent. We have an expectation of how we want to play, at both ends of the floor. No matter who the opponent is, if we’re not meeting that expectation, then we’re frustrated and we demand that. Maybe that’s why we have success (in Quad 3 and 4 games), because we play to a standard instead of an opponent.”

The caveat?

“It’s still a young team, at some level,” Dutcher said of a nine-man rotation with six freshmen or sophomores, a departure from his veteran-laden teams of the recent past. “Are those messages getting through? Yeah, they’re getting through. But until they’ve totally sunk in and they can perform the way I want them to perform every day, which includes practice, then we’re going to continue to grow.

“We’re still in the grow phase. We’re not there yet.”

Part of that growth is the ability to flush poor performances like Saturday’s 62-48 drubbing at The Pit in which they were crushed 18-3 on the offensive boards and generated their poorest offensive efficiency numbers in more than 100 games.

The Aztecs have historically done that, as the 34-4 record in games after losses suggests. When the next game is at home, they have won 36 of 37.

“It’s just the mentality we have as a group,” Byrd said. “We’re never in the locker room pointing fingers after a loss. It’s always a lot of accountability out of everybody. We understand what made us lose. For instance, New Mexico out-physicaled us. They were better at being San Diego State than San Diego State that day.

“We all have that mentality that it’s right back to work. We might watch 30, 45 minutes of film from the game, then we’re onto the next thing. You don’t dwell on things, and let those become lessons instead. We’re really good at dropping it and moving on to the next game.”

Originally Published: January 13, 2025 at 6:17 PM PST