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On betting lines, the Bills stand as slight underdogs against the Chiefs in Sunday’s AFC championship game in Kansas City.
I see the Bills as a slight favorite due to their quarterback, Josh Allen.
In his seventh NFL season, Allen seems to have attained a state of football mastery. He’s become poised to the point of being unrecognizable from his Young Josh days as a gunslinging, sometimes reckless quarterback who sometimes took himself, his teammates and Bills fans on Sunday roller-coaster rides.
Allen still throws dangerous passes, as all quarterbacks must. He still risks fumbles by slamming into the line or running keepers near edge rushers.
He almost never errs, however. He’s now Wise Josh.
The ball goes where it’s supposed to go — either to a teammate who can catch it or for a smart incompletion.
Allen has reduced his interception rate by more than half, as compared to his prior two seasons. It’s tougher than ever to pick him off.
Causing him to fumble has never been so difficult, either — he has lost the ball just five times in 19 games despite the varied playmaking.
Seven years ago, when he was picked seventh overall in the NFL Draft, the Wyoming alum brought rare tools into the NFL.
Allen showed easy arm strength. The ball came out fast and cut through Buffalo’s winds. Defensive backs struggled to judge his easy velocity.
Huge and athletic, the 6-foot-5, 240-pounder had the quickness and agility to elude NFL defenders, yet also sought out and won collisions against linebackers and safeties.
Skeptics wondered how long his body could weather the punishment.
The answer wasn’t very predictable: Allen has proven more durable than any of the other star QBs of his era. At 28, he appears as fast and agile as ever.
Observers had other questions. Would Allen outgrow the typical mistakes a young quarterback commits? Could he become less frenetic when the game heated up?
Yes and yes.
Allen has led the Bills to the playoffs every year from 2019 to 2023. In those 10 playoff games, he has passed for 21 touchdowns against four interceptions. He ran for seven touchdowns.
If not for Buffalo’s infamous defensive collapse in the final 13 seconds of regulation during a Divisional Round loss to Kansas City three years ago, Allen may have reached his first Super Bowl by now.
Still, entering this season, Allen knew he needed to reduce the turnovers. The run game needed a boost, too.
Coupled with the growth of Bills blockers, Allen’s scary run threat has unclogged rushing lanes for teammates such as running back James Cook, whose 16 rushing touchdowns led the NFL this season.
The absence of stars among Bills pass-catchers has turned out to be a good thing, thanks to Allen’s ability to find whoever’s open. Defenses struggle to figure out where the ball will go.
Some of the smartest people on earth are established NFL oddsmakers. They favor the Chiefs by 1 1/2 points. The game figures to be tight, and for a while now, coach Andy Reid’s Chiefs have been winning such duels. They’ve taken their past 15 one-score games, the longest such streak in NFL history. This season, six of the Chiefs’ wins have come on the final play of the game.
Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes — an all-time great at 29.
But Allen’s consistency has made a strong impression. He’s never played so well so often, as he has this season.
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