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A whopping 10 of the 16 quarterbacks on Sunday’s main slate are of the back-up variety.
Aidan O’Connell, Spencer Rattler, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Tyler Huntley, Kenny Pickett, Cooper Rush, Mac Jones, Mason Rudolph, Drew Lock and Joe Flacco are all starting for a professional football team this weekend.
With all due respect to Flacco, who was the Super Bowl XLVII MVP and continues to be serviceable two months shy of his 40th birthday, it isn’t exactly a murderers’ row is it?
The good news? On the smallest slate of the season (there’s only eight games), this should make your options at QB crystal clear if you can sidestep the urge to paydown at the position.
Sam Darnold, Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield are currently projected to be the top-three rostered QBs. This makes sense because the Packers-Vikings (48½ points) and Panthers-Buccaneers (48) have the highest game totals on the slimmed down slate.
I anticipate the field heavily stacking both of these matchups.
However, with so many great players missing this week due to holiday showcases, I’m paying a premium for elite players, starting at the most important position in the game.
The Preamble
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.
On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.
Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.25 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.
The Optimal Lineup has netted $247.86 this season, so I’m in the red $47.14 with an average score of 135.34 points through 16 weeks.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 90.16
Week 2: 144.38
Week 3: 100.38
Week 4: 180.78
Week 5: 147.14
Week 6: 126.72
Week 7: 132.98
Week 8: 114.84
Week 9: 168.48
Week 10: 97.16
Week 11: 138.58
Week 12: 109.78
Week 13: 106.92
Week 14: 187.28
Week 15: 140.96
Week 16: 178.96
Week 17 Lineup
QB: Josh Allen, Bills ($8,500)
If Buffalo beats the Jets, it will clinch the No. 2 seed and be able to rest up next week at New England, which means this may be Allen’s last opportunity to make a statement for MVP.
RB: Saquon Barkley, Eagles ($8,600)
Philadelphia clinches the NFC East title with a win over the rival Cowboys, and I can’t imagine the Eagles will place that responsibility in the small hands of Pickett. Plus, without Jalen Hurts vulturing touchdowns, Barkley has even more upside than usual.
RB: Rachaad White, Buccaneers ($5,700)
Bucky Irving’s ownership percentage could reach 50% with a premium matchup against the Panthers, especially after he smashed against them in Week 13. According to Fantasy Pros, Carolina has allowed the most rushing yards per game, the highest yards after contact per attempt, and the seventh-highest explosive run rate since Week 11. Irving is cash-game darling on this slate, but it’s White who makes the most sense for a tournament this size, as both backs should produce against a defense this bad.
WR: Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($8,300)
The Packers will be without Jaire Alexander again, meaning Jefferson should continue his recent tear in what is expected to be one of the best game environments on the slate. The dynamic receiver has 24 receptions (34 targets) for 349 yards and five TDs in the last three games.
WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Colts ($4,700)
The field will lean Josh Downs, but Pittman is just as likely to benefit from Flacco being under center. The Giants have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
WR: Brandin Cooks, Cowboys ($4,600)
Cooks could take over CeeDee Lamb‘s high-volume role this week with Dallas likely chasing points, and this also offers leverage against a popular Jake Ferguson play.
TE: Payne Durham, Buccaneers ($2,900)
With Cade Otton out, Durham had a respectable five receptions on seven targets last week against the Cowboys. The Panthers have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game and the most receiving TDs to tight ends. This completes my contrarian Tampa Bay stack with Mayfield, Irving, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan all likely among the most rostered players at their position.
FLEX: Dalton Kincaid, Bills ($4,300)
You really don’t need to stack anyone with Allen to justify the play. Call this a hunch on Kincaid though. He’s been mostly meh this season, but he’s due and had a season-high six receptions against the Jets in Week 6.
DST: Cleveland Browns ($2,400)
I had the Browns’ defense locked in before Tua Tagovailoa was downgraded to doubtful on Saturday with a hip injury. Myles Garrett and Co. haven’t quit despite another difficult season in Cleveland and the weather is shaping up to be a hodgepodge of wet and windy. The Dolphins’ offense was unwatchable earlier this season without Tagovailoa.
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