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Faster than a speeding bullet. More powerful than a locomotive. Able to leap tall buildings in a single bound.
Look! Up in the sky! It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s Josh Allen!
Yes, it’s Allen, a strange visitor from the University of Wyoming (might as well be Krypton) who was drafted by the Buffalo Bills with powers and abilities far beyond those of mortal men.
I anticipated the Rams offense keeping Allen in attack mode all game last week, and boy did they ever. He finished with the highest point total (54.88) ever for a quarterback on DraftKings, becoming the first player in NFL history to pass for three touchdowns and run for three touchdowns in a regular-season game.
The legendary Otto Graham did it in the 1956 NFL title game for the Browns, and they actually won the game, 56-10 over the Lions, unlike the Bills’ 44-42 loss in Los Angeles.
The Lineup had its best week of the season due to Allen and Zach Charbonnet’s contributions — Charbonnet finished with 41.3 DK points on a measly $4,800 investment.
Getting 96 points from two players will cleanse your lineup of any mistakes you might have made. I’m staring directly with my pointer finger fully extended at you Saquon Barkley, and the pitiful 17.4 DK points you produced against the worst run defense in the NFL.
This week’s main slate features a potential Super Bowl preview in the Bills-Lions matchup, which happens to be the highest game total of the year (54½ points).
The foundation of your strategy will be built on whether you decide to stack or fade this matchup.
The Preamble
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.
On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.
Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.
The Optimal Lineup has netted $207.86 this season, so I’m in the red $47.14 with an average score of 131.83 points through 14 weeks.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 90.16
Week 2: 144.38
Week 3: 100.38
Week 4: 180.78
Week 5: 147.14
Week 6: 126.72
Week 7: 132.98
Week 8: 114.84
Week 9: 168.48
Week 10: 97.16
Week 11: 138.58
Week 12: 109.78
Week 13: 106.92
Week 14: 187.28
Week 15 Lineup
QB: Kyler Murray, Cardinals ($6,000)
What are the odds Allen makes history three weeks in a row? Remember, in Week 13 he became the first QB to pass, catch and run for a TD. Starting Jared Goff could be a sharp bet because he’s $2,000 cheaper and will likely benefit from the same offense-infused game environment. But the Lions I’m using this week don’t need Goff to go off for them to reach their ceiling, so I’m going with Murray. This season has been a rollercoaster ride for the diminutive QB, but I chalk that up to an unusually difficult schedule. Since Week 5, he’s played against the 49ers, Packers, Chargers, Dolphins, Bears, Jets, Seahawks (twice) and Vikings. None of those teams are in the back half of the NFL in passing points allowed per attempt. The Patriots, his opponent this week, are 27th and have allowed multiple TD passes in five of their last six games.
RB: David Montgomery, Lions ($7,000)
Only one glaring weakness stands out for either Detroit or the Bills, and that’s Buffalo’s run defense. Both Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500) make a lot of sense this week, but I’m going Monty for the savings and the added leverage against the field. Most believe Gibbs is better suited for Draft Kings and its PPR format, but he only has two more receptions than Montgomery this season.
RB: Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($5,900)
If Murray gets close to his ceiling, it’s because New England is putting up a fight. According to Fantasy Pros, the Cardinals have allowed the second-most yards per carry and fifth-highest rushing success rate to gap runs since Week 9. Stevenson has received 57.2% of his carries on gap plays.
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions ($7,600)
Detroit does exactly what the Rams did against the Bills, attack the middle of a defense with crossers. Only the Lions do it better. St. Brown’s salary has dropped to its lowest point of the season, which is always the best time to buy when it comes to elite playmakers.
WR: Garrett Wilson, Jets ($6,500)
The Jaguars are the worst pass defense in the NFL by several different metrics. They’re bottom five in passing yards and TDs allowed per game, and have allowed a 107.4 passer rating to opposing QBs, the highest in the league. Both Wilson and Davante Adams ($6,900) make meals out of man coverage, which is also something Jacksonville stubbornly runs at one of the highest rates in league.
WR: Amari Cooper, Bills ($5,300)
I included Cooper last week in a stack with Allen, and he finished with six receptions for 95 yards on a team-high 14 targets. I expect the volume to stay high with a potential shootout in Detroit Rock City.
TE: Brenton Strange, Jaguars ($2,500)
Strange costs the bare minimum at tight end and should inherit most of Evan Engram’s vacated targets after he was placed on injured reserve. Engram had a 24% target share in four games with Mac Jones primarily under center.
FLEX: Trey McBride, Cardinals ($6,000)
Both Murray and McBride will be chalk this week, but there’s a reason for that since the later in the season we get, the easier it is to trust these matchups. In other words, these teams are who we think they are. McBride has seen at least 12 targets in three straight games, and continues the quest for his first receiving TD this season. If he does find the paint, he has the potential to produce a slate-breaking point total at the position.
DST: Denver Broncos ($3,200)
The Broncos are one of only two defenses averaging double-digit fantasy points this season — the Vikings are the other — and Anthony Richardson does a might good Ricky Vaughn impression.
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