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Three thoughts on No. 24 San Diego State’s 74-57 win over USD at Viejas Arena on Saturday night:
1. Crosstown conundrum
If you ask SDSU coaches if they want to play crosstown foes USD or UC San Diego again, you might get different answers mid-game versus postgame.
The Aztecs played both in the same season for the first time as Division I programs, and both games had their hairy moments. In the opener against UCSD, they trailed by five inside seven minutes to go before rallying to win 63-58. Saturday night, they trailed early in the second half and it was still a four-point game with 10 minutes to go.
“You always think, well, we’re not going to do this again,” coach Brian Dutcher said after the UCSD game Nov. 6. “Then the dates line up and it’s a good game for both teams, and you do it.”
But it is?
It certainly is for UCSD and USD, even if it means exclusively playing at Viejas Arena. It’s a chance to step out of the enormous shadow cast by the Aztecs. It historically has led to a metrics bump. And this year, it’s a chance to make $80,000 each just for showing up.
The arguments for SDSU, other than scheduling convenience, are more dubious.
The problem is that college basketball — and selection into the NCAA Tournament — is so defined by metrics now. And the computer blithely views it as just another game, not a chip-on-the-shoulder, big-brother-little-brother rivalry against a team that rode a bus 15 minutes to get there, which often mitigates differences in talent.
“It’s always the gamble,” Dutcher admitted Saturday. “You’re playing a crosstown rivalry game, and they’re not the same team from a (metric) standpoint because it’s a rivalry game and they play hard against their rivals. We know we’re going to get their best effort.
“I feel better that we’re playing them in our building. Had we been at Jenny Craig and they went on that run, who knows what could have happened. (At) UCSD last year, we had to tip one in at the buzzer to beat them.”
The numbers echo his words. Following the last 10 meetings against USD or UCSD as a Division I program, eight of them victories, the Aztecs have improved in Kenpom only twice (and one was by a single spot). When the Toreros won 73-61 at Viejas Arena in 2018, SDSU plummeted from 63 to 81 and ultimately didn’t make the NCAA Tournament.
Metrics like Kenpom and the NCAA’s NET are largely based on your actual performance compared to computer expectations. Just win, baby, isn’t enough.
The Aztecs overperformed Wednesday at Fresno State — winning by 22 instead of the projected 15 — and climbed in Kenpom and NET. Saturday, they were projected to win by 23 and dropped slightly in both despite a 17-point victory.
This season for the first time, SDSU declined to renew the multiyear series where it would play return games at USD’s Jenny Craig Pavilion to UCSD’s LionTree Arena. These were both one-off “buy” games at Viejas Arena.
“I feel better being in Viejas in front of our crowd,” Dutcher said. “That gives us an edge. … Playing them home-and-home, or a two-for-one, that’s something I’d really have to be convinced of, to go back into their buildings and play a team with a lower NET in a road game is always a challenge.”
So that appears out. As for the future games at Viejas Arena, we’ll have to wait and see.
2. Mountain slide
If the Mountain West is a one-or two-bid league after sending six to the NCAA Tournament last year, we’ll remember Dec. 7 as the day that the needle turned south.
The Aztecs struggling at home against a team with a 329 NET was the least of the league’s concern.
New Mexico lost at home in overtime to New Mexico State, a rivalry game mandated by the state legislature.
Nevada lost at Loyola Marymount.
Boise State lost to Washington State at a downtown hockey arena.
UNLV got blown out at Creighton despite the Bluejays missing their second-leading scorer.
Colorado State lost by 17 at Colorado.
In his most recent projected field, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi had only two Mountain West teams in — SDSU as a 9 seed and Nevada in the play-in game as an 11. Boise State, Utah State and New Mexico were all out.
But that’s before Nevada trailed by 10 at halftime against a 3-4 LMU team that was 180 in Kenpom. The loss plunged the Wolf Pack 19 spots in NET to 64 and most certainly out.
It’s still early, and there’s plenty of time to build resumes — or, in this case, rebuild them. But look at where the conference was at this time a year ago, with four teams in the Kenpom top 50. Now there’s only one: SDSU at 37.
The Mountain West is still ranked sixth among conferences, behind the power five (SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East and ACC) and ahead of everyone else. Saturday’s run of bad results, though, has moved it closer to the other mid-majors than the big boys. The West Coast Conference and Atlantic 10, well adrift of the Mountain West last season, are both within striking distance.
The good news is there are still nonconference opportunities to shine. Boise State and Utah State both have games against Saint Mary’s (36 in Kenpom). New Mexico and Colorado State both play VCU (40). UNLV is at Dayton (34).
It’s just that the margin of error has evaporated.
3. Just confidence
Basketball teams don’t give out game balls like in football. If they did, sophomore forward Miles Heide would have been presented one in the locker room Saturday night.
This Aztecs team is distinguished by its depth, and so far this season eight of the nine members of the regular rotation have had big games. Heide was the last, and his came against USD on a night when starting 7-footer Magoon Gwath didn’t score and didn’t play for the final 19 minutes.
Heide has struggled this season, with 11 points in his first seven games and 1 of 7 shooting from the line.
But Dutcher has preached patience with his young group, noting that bigs always take longer to develop than guards, and he kept sending Heide onto the floor for shifts. The dividends came Saturday with eight points (on 4 of 5 shooting) and nine rebounds in 18 minutes — all matching or surpassing career bests.
In 10 second-half minutes, Heide had six points and five rebounds (three offensive), and the Aztecs were plus-21 points with him on the floor.
“Just confidence,” Dutcher said afterward, beaming. “Confidence is the key to anybody’s game. You have to believe in yourself and know that the coach and the team believe in you, and then go out and perform. Sometimes you struggle with your confidence, and it’s hard to play.”
The rest of the team recognized it and mobbed Heide as he came to the bench for timeouts.
“The beauty of it is he played well and his teammates knew it and they embraced him and made him feel good about himself,” Dutcher said. “That’s all anybody wants as a player, to feel confident and feel good about themselves, and Miles should feel good about himself after a game like this.”
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