Another new year, already?

The year 2025 got here as fast as Fernando Tatis Jr.’ groundball zoomed past shortstop to the Dodger Stadium warning track last October.

For the Padres folks who aim to upgrade the ‘25 roster, life will only speed up in coming weeks and months. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller and Co. slow-played the first half of the offseason, waiting for the biggest spenders to make moves, getting a read on the MLB marketplace.

What moves will Preller pull off?

Sorry, folks. Questions are all I have.

Here are four of them:

1. Will the Padres trade Xander Bogaerts to the Red Sox?

The X mystery first entails Preller projecting out how well Bogaerts, 32, will age during his long, heavy contract, and to what extent injuries affected his hitting the past two years.

The Padres owe Bogaerts more than $25 million per year for the next nine seasons. That adds up to $229 million.

The ballclub’s financial picture, though brighter than that of any other smaller-market club, has lost some shine since the late Peter Seidler and Preller signed Bogaerts three Decembers ago.

The Padres’ sharp reduction in payroll last year is likely to be maintained this year. That, coupled with Bogaerts’ worrisome decline in slugging percentage each of the past five seasons, makes the contract an “X factor” for years to come.

If a trade is needed, the most logical partner may be the Red Sox, who have a deep history with Bogaerts — and, as a big-market club, can carry a much bigger payroll than the Padres.

When the Padres signed Bogaerts, a major league scout with a neutral team said several baseball folks with the Red Sox felt a sense of melancholy.

After all, Bogaerts had been a big part of the franchise’s successes. He was a big part of two World Series champions and impressed Red Sox folks for many years after joining the franchise at age 16 and reaching the big leagues at 20.

Injuries have sidetracked Bogaerts with the Padres.

He started fast in his first season, 2023, only to suffer a left wrist injury that seemed to rob him of hitting power, a factor in his slugging rate dipping to a six-year low. Last season, he broke his left shoulder in a diving attempt for a groundball and ended up with a .381 slug rate, well below his career average.

The injury occurred with Bogaerts playing second base. That’s not a great position for someone who stands 6-foot-2 and says his playing weight can reach 220 pounds.

Bogaerts is still a reliable shortstop. But that’s also the top position of well-regarded Padres prospect Leodalis De Vries, who’s a candidate to join the team in 2026.

With Manny Machado entrenched at third base, Bogaerts could be a future fit at first base and designated hitter.

The Padres figure to have cheaper options there. Plus, the DH role helps preserve Machado, who’s also 32 and under contract for a long time.

The Red Sox, recall, took on Eric Hosmer after his Padres tenure had bottomed out, although the Padres had to eat a lot of money.

2. Will business connections in South Korea increase the chances of Ha-Seong Kim returning to the Padres?

Kim is a better shortstop than Bogaerts. Also, he’s better at second base, will cost less and is three years younger.

This, too: on the revenue side, Kim may be of more value to the Padres than to many other MLB teams. He’s popular in South Korea, where he was a star before Preller signed him to a four-year contract entering the 2021 season. As a West Coast team, the Padres offer a good logistical fit with South Korean fans and businesses. Padres CEO Erik Gruepner has said Kim created business opportunities for the Padres in South Korea, where Padres game telecasts are aired throughout the country.

Kim is now a free agent whose defensive excellence will draw interest. It’s not clear he’ll be ready to play before mid-April, per projections reported by the Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee, due to a right shoulder injury he suffered in mid-August. It wasn’t until Oct. 10 that Kim underwent surgery to repair cartilage damage.

The chances of Kim returning to the Padres may have improved last month, when the Giants signed shortstop Willy Adames. San Francisco had been linked to Kim, whose friend Jung-Hoo Lee is the team’s center fielder.

3. Is Japanese ace Roki Sasaki the first player on Preller’s wish list?

You betcha.

One, he could become the best pitcher on the planet. Two, he won’t command a large salary and will be under his team’s control for six years. Three, the team that signs Sasaki, 23, will see its revenues go u, no matter how Sasaki performs. The pitcher’s popularity in Japan will facilitate commercial endorsements.

Sasaki’s decision will come before spring training begins.

4. Will starting pitcher Dylan Cease shoulder a heavy load once again?

Cease is eligible for free agency next offseason, creating the potential for a massive contract.

Last season, Cease once again threw caution to the wind, warming the hearts of old-school baseball devotees. He never missed a start. In completing his first no-hitter, he went well beyond his normal pitch count range. He threw more pitches than all but two other MLB starters.Then Cease made two more starts in the postseason.

When Padres manager Mike Shildt asked Cease to make start on short rest, a career-first, Cease accepted. He took the ball for the National League Division Series Game 4 assignment against the Dodgers despite showing fatigue in his Game 1 start.

Cease may not want to change his team-oriented approach. After all, exceeding MLB workload norms seems to work for him. He’s one of only six pitchers to amass 160-plus innings in each of the past four seasons; over that span, he compiled a 3.53 ERA and a spectacular 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings.

Even so, throughout MLB, it’s common for a a veteran pitcher (or his agent) to encourage his employer to get him multiple weeks off within a season.

It’s seen as a boon to long-term health and ability to finish a season in good form. Entering free agency, there’s often greater incentive to get some additional rest.

Originally Published: January 1, 2025 at 12:49 PM PST