Padres trying to make numbers work for 2025 – elcajon newson Elcajon News only

DALLAS — Almost exactly one year ago, in the lobby of a sprawling hotel on the morning after the Padres traded Juan Soto to the Yankees in what was, in part, a salary dump, a person close to Soto shook his head as he lamented how things could have been different.

“This would never have happened if Peter was alive,” the man said as he and others prepared to leave the winter meetings.

There was no way to positively refute the grim-faced claim. Seidler had died less than a month earlier. The ever-optimistic team chairman had made anything seem possible.

But the trade of Soto had been seen by virtually everyone in the organization as inevitable, regardless of who was running the team. The Padres might have been able to afford Soto in 2024, but they would not have been able to then also make the half-dozen or so other moves that proved fateful in their run to a 92-win season. So, really, they could not have afforded him and also built a contending club.

And they certainly would not have been able to keep him beyond ‘24, a reality driven home Sunday night when Soto agreed to a 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets.

This is not conjecture. This is the state of things.

The Padres’ payroll, according to sources familiar with their plans, will be higher than last year’s final mark of $169 million. No one is saying what it will be, but indications are the opening-day figure will be lower than the projected $210 million in commitments the Padres currently have when arbitration-eligible players are included.

That means A.J. Preller has to have another excellent offseason, and this time he has to do it without the Soto trade chip.

“We always have parameters and have a general sense of what we’re trying to do — having one-year plans and three-year plans,” Preller said Monday on the first day of this year’s winter meetings. “We’re also open-minded. … We’ve always had the ability to pivot. We have an ownership group that’s open-minded from that standpoint — both adding to payroll in years past (and) sometimes taking away from payroll. The end goal of winning a championship is very clear. We’re super excited about what we did this year and want to build on that.”

Wherever their actual payouts for ‘25 land, one source said there is “no scenario” in which the Padres exceed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold of $241 million. The CBT payroll takes into account the average annual value of contracts, meaning a player like Manny Machado counts $31.8 million against the CBT even though he will make just $13 million in 2025.

The Padres’ projected CBT number is currently $244 million.

And they are looking to sign at least one starting pitcher, at least one catcher and an everyday left fielder.

One way the Padres could lower both their cash and CBT commitments is by signing designated hitter/first baseman Luis Arraez to a long-term deal. Arraez is projected to be due $13-15 million in ‘25, his final year of arbitration. A four- or five-year contract for the three-time batting champion would almost certainly have a lower annual average than that, and it could also include a lower salary in 2025.

Arraez, a three-time batting champion who will turn 28 in April, has expressed interest in a long-team deal. The Padres speak glowingly of him both publicly and privately. But the sides have not begun contract discussions.

There is also some level of interest — on both sides — to entertain multi-year deals for center fielder Jackson Merrill and starting pitcher Michael King.

Budget and CBT considerations complicate both of those possibilities.

While the Padres could save money in the long run, any multi-year deal for King would be for a significantly higher average than the $8-11 million he is projected to get in his final year of arbitration eligibility.

The appeal of locking up Merrill, who is just 21, to a team-friendly deal was driven home by Soto’s signing.

The Padres seem on track to realize some savings on the 14-year, $340 million contract they gave Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2021.

Said Preller: “I think that’s part of the planning process for us from a few years ago is understanding that markets change and prices change.”

But while a long-term deal for Merrill would offer a similar opportunity for  savings, it would necessitate a larger payout and CBT hit than the $800,000 he is due in ‘25.

It was in reference to perhaps signing players to long-term deals that Preller expanded on his previous payroll comments.

“We talk about it all the time,” he said. “We’re aware of a lot of factors when we talk about payroll … We have an ownership group (where) it’s not a hard-and-fast number. You don’t feel like it’s a hard cap. … Ultimately, we’re going to do what we think is best for our franchise. We’re open-minded to what we need to do to keep the best talent, the best players here to put a team on the field that we feel like is going to win a World Series. We have our parameters we’ll talk about, but ultimately we’re