It would be lunacy to ask the San Diego State’s football program under coach Sean Lewis to succeed on a national scale like the men’s basketball program has under Brian Dutcher.

Different industries, different universes.

Dutcher, humble and bright, has led SDSU to a national championship game within four consecutive trips to the NCAA Tournament. Neither Don Coryell in his prime nor Nick Saban or Dabo Sweeney would lead today’s football Aztecs near comparable heights in a college football world dominated more than ever by money.

In basketball, the likes of SDSU, Gonzaga and Butler have reached a recent national title game — and Florida Atlantic and Loyola Chicago cracked a recent Final Four.

College football programs have it much tougher. It takes much more money to succeed in football.

Consider how much North Carolina pledged this week to land Bill Belichick, the former NFL head coach.

Belichick received a guarantee of $30 million in salary, reports USA Today. He also got $100,000 a year to cover expenses. For his coaching staff, the price was $10 million, and Belichick’s support staff, which includes a general manager, will get $5.3 million. Plus, Belichick’s program will receive $13 million in “revenue sharing.”

Keep this in mind, too: the NBA is SDSU’s basketball’s friend because it grabs the college game’s best players after just one or two seasons. The NBA dilutes the powerhouses that used to own March Madness.

The NFL, on the other hand, isn’t helpful to SDSU football. All college players typically must stay in school three years, enabling the wealthiest programs to field several future NFL starters.

Evaluating Lewis

So if SDSU basketball ceiling isn’t a fair comparison for SDSU football, what’s a fair measuring stick for the football Aztecs?

Let’s keep it simple.

Two other Cal State universities maintained mid-major football programs in 2024. First-year head coaches directed all three schools this year.

The results weren’t great for Lewis and SDSU.

The Aztecs finished tied with Wyoming for 11th in the 12-team Mountain West, while Fresno State and San Jose State ended up fourth and fifth, respectively.

As SDSU (3-9) sits out the bowl season this winter, San Jose State (7-5) and Fresno State (6-6) will prepare for the Hawaii Bowl and the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

Ken Niumatalolo, the first-year coach at San Jose State, acclimated well after having led Navy (.568) for 16 years in his previous head-coaching job. The Spartans beat Oregon State and Stanford in November, earning them the bowl date against South Florida on Dec. 24 in Honolulu.

Though Niumatalolo featured a triple-option ground attack at Navy, he leaned into run-and-shoot pass concepts this year. Persuaded the Spartans would throw the ball often, slot receiver Nick Nash decided against transferring and won the conference’s receiving triple crown. Nash, who played quarterback for his Irvine high school, figures to be taken in the next NFL draft.

Fresno State’s Tim Skipper faced a tougher transition, assuming the interim head coach role in July after Jeff Tedford stepped down for health reasons. The Bulldogs fell off from a 9-4 season in which they smacked Arizona State, 29-0. They walloped San Jose State, though, and by beating Colorado State last month, drew a bowl matchup Dec. 23 against Northern Illinois.

Challenges in a changing world

All three Cal State schools face the severe challenges posed by a transfer-happy climate, plus the revenue limitations of previous eras.

Lewis has shown flexibility in adapting to the ever-changing climate. But his job of building a winner may have grown tougher this week, when starting quarterback Danny O’Neil announced he was entering the NCAA transfer portal after one year.

Lewis scored a victory last offseason by landing O’Neil, who showed promise this season in starting every Aztecs game but one as a true freshman despite a knee injury. But with O’Neil heading back to the Midwest to be near family, the coach will have to start over at QB.

“It has nothing to do with the coaches,” O’Neil told the Union-Tribune’s Kirk Kenney. He added: “Coach Lew is a very good human being. I’ve said that from Day 1.”

Lewis has retained a defensive core around which to build. Leading that group is Eastlake High School graduate Trey White, who had 12 1/2 sacks last year. Might that result encourage Lewis and staff to increase efforts to sign players out of San Diego County high schools?

Fresno State may have to replace its QB and other key players, too. Since the season ended, several Bulldogs starters, including quarterback Mikey Keene, who led the Mountain West in completion rate (70.5%) and passing yards (2,892), have entered the transfer portal. Skipper was replaced by Matt Entz, the former North Dakota State coach who spent last season as the assistant head coach for defense and linebackers coach at USC.

It’s too soon to know how the transfer-portal era will shake out for any of the Cal State schools. All the more reason, then, to use all three of them as a straight edge, measuring the performance of the other two.

Lewis got a five-year contract from J.D. Wicker when the athletic director hired him from Kent State. He deserves more seasons — yes, plural — to build up a program that went 4-8 in Brady Hoke’s final year.

Kent State went from 2-10 to 7-6 in its first two years under Lewis. This may be a tougher lift.

Originally Published: December 13, 2024 at 3:49 PM PST