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Welcome to the NFL’s bizarro week.
Where the competition can either resemble the playoffs or the preseason, or an amalgamation of both, depending on the matchup.
With their playoff seeding locked up, or all but locked up, the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, Rams, Texans are all resting key starters this week.
On DraftKings main slate, the Broncos, Buccaneers and Falcons have the most at stake.
The teams who have little or nothing to play for, with backups playing prominent roles, will be good sources of cheap value, but I’ll be targeting teams and players with motivation to win, who have already showcased an impressive ceiling this season.
Beginning with two teams who have disappointed this year, but continue to play hard, are attempting to finish on a high note, and combined for 71 points in their Week 5 matchup: the Colts and Jaguars.
The Preamble
Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.
On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.
Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.25 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.
All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.
The Optimal Lineup has netted $247.86 this season, so I’m in the red $67.14 with an average score of 134.77 points through 17 weeks.
Year-To-Date Results
Week 1: 90.16
Week 2: 144.38
Week 3: 100.38
Week 4: 180.78
Week 5: 147.14
Week 6: 126.72
Week 7: 132.98
Week 8: 114.84
Week 9: 168.48
Week 10: 97.16
Week 11: 138.58
Week 12: 109.78
Week 13: 106.92
Week 14: 187.28
Week 15: 140.96
Week 16: 178.96
Week 17: 125.58
Week 18 Lineup
QB: Joe Flacco, Colts ($5,400)
With most of the field either paying up for Baker Mayfield ($7,000) or paying down for Joshua Dobbs ($4,000), Flacco presents a nice value in between, who has high upside in potentially his final start in the NFL. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and the veteran gunslinger completed 33 of his 44 passes against them for 359 yards and three touchdowns in October.
RB: Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks ($6,700)
In five starts this season, Charbonnet is averaging 19 touches (four receptions) for 102 total yards and has scored six TDs. Also, Seattle will be highly motivated to win its 10th game in coach Mike Macdonald’s first year. Indeed, quarterback Geno Smith will receive a $2 million bonus if the Seahawks reach double-digit victories.
RB: Isaac Guerendo, 49ers ($5,900)
Guerendo has led San Francisco’s backfield his last three games, producing 302 total yards and two TDs on 50 touches with the Niners decimated by injuries. The Cardinals have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game, the second-highest explosive run rate, and the third-highest missed tackle rate since Week 12, according to Fantasy Pros.
WR: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars ($7,300)
Thomas has double-digit targets in five straight games, and has averaged 30.2 DraftKings points since Week 15. The Colts just got destroyed by Malik Nabers — seven receptions for 171 yards and two TDs — and allowed Thomas to go for 122 yards and a TD on five receptions in their first matchup.
WR: Josh Downs, Colts ($5,300)
Downs was heavily rostered last week and disappointed after being an afterthought in Indy’s passing game with only four targets. I’m thinking that was an outlier performance. In Flacco’s four other starts this season, Downs has a 27.6% target share, including a season-high 12 targets against the Jaguars in Week 5.
WR: Alec Pierce, Colts ($5,000)
Pierce has been the ultimate boom-or-bust pick in fantasy this season, but he features the type of ceiling you need to win large tournaments like the Milly Maker, so I’m including him in my Indy double-stack over Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,200). Pierce has at least 18.1 DK points in three of Flacco’s five starts, including 25-plus points twice.
TE: Ja’Tavion Sanders, Panthers ($2,600)
Sanders is a high upside punt option at tight end who saw a season-high seven targets against the Falcons in Week 6.
FLEX: Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($8,500)
The Falcons still have an outside shot at making the playoffs, and the Panthers have allowed over 200 rushing yards in the last five games, which is tied for the third-longest streak in NFL history. This is a smash spot for one of the most dynamic running backs in the game.
DST: Atlanta Falcons ($3,200)
The Panthers offense had been showing signs of life, but losing Chuba Hubbard was a big blow and I don’t believe Bryce Young has improved enough to shoulder the burden of carrying an offense without a competent running game. The Falcons are actually the highest-scoring defense in fantasy since returning from their bye in Week 13.
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