SDSU plays Cal, but also the computer, in metrics-driven game – elcajon newson Elcajon News only

San Diego State and Cal will play a men’s basketball game on Saturday night at an NHL arena in San Jose. It’s a part of an informal two-game series that began last year at a high school in San Juan Capistrano.

The SAP Center is 47 miles from Cal’s campus. JSerra High is 68 miles from SDSU.

Both universities have perfectly good on-campus arenas. Why not just play there?

The short, and long, answer is computer metrics. Off-campus venues qualify as neutral sites, which count differently when an algorithm determines your metric standing and, quite possibly, your selection and seeding in the NCAA Tournament.

“No one wants to lose a home game,” Aztecs coach Brian Dutcher said. “It always hurts you metrically. But playing a neutral game, sometimes you can survive it. People are checking all those numbers out.”

Always, the numbers.

The Aztecs are playing Cal on Saturday night (7:30 p.m., ACC Network). They’re also playing the computer.

Advanced metrics have come to define men’s college basketball, replacing the simplistic RPI (Rating Percentage Index) that was based exclusively on results and location with complex analytics that include a dozen or more in-game statistics as well as strength of schedule. No longer is it good enough to merely win. It’s how you win, in relation to the computer’s expectation.

And it’s a computer. It doesn’t factor the human intangibles of rivalry games, doesn’t adjust for the lung-scorching elevation at Wyoming, doesn’t differentiate between a buzzer-beater and a basket scored against the walk-ons in garbage time of a 30-point blowout, doesn’t know if a jet-lagged referee had a bad night.

The numbers are the numbers.

There is a such a thing as a bad win, or a good loss.

“Point margins matter now,” Dutcher said. “You don’t go out there and run up and down and not care at the end, because every point matters metrically. Winning is not enough. Winning by a lot of points is what you’re trying to do at some level. Our first goal is to win the game. And then, obviously, a lot of teams are trying to win by larger margins because it affects the metrics.”

Which SDSU (7-2) hasn’t always done this season, which might explain why they rank No. 23 in the eye test — the Associated Press media poll — but are 42nd in the Kempom metric and 56th in the NCAA’s NET despite playing one of the nation’s most challenging nonconference schedules with only losses against top-15 opponents.

The Aztecs’ biggest jump since the NET was released on Dec. 1 was 17 spots following a 22-win at Fresno State when they were expected to win by 15. They didn’t meet projected spreads in home wins against three Southern California opponents — UC San Diego, USD and Cal Baptist — and dropped after all three. (The 100-49 win against Division III Occidental doesn’t count because only Division I opponents do.)

“Obviously, we wish our metrics were better,” said Dutcher, whose team is projected to win 78-71 against Cal. “I don’t know why they are or aren’t. We played as difficult schedule as we could possibly play. But then point differential goes into these games. Winning is not enough. Winning by a lot of points is what you’re trying to do at some level.”

Take Arizona. The Wildcats are 5-5 and don’t have a top-100 win yet are 24th in Kenpom and 33rd in the NET.

Why? Their five wins against non-power conference foes, four of them at home, were by 28, 29, 33, 36 and 58 points.

They were supposed to beat Southern Utah by 28, won 102-66 and climbed 18 spots in the NET.

UCLA is an indirect beneficiary. The Bruins beat Arizona 57-54 last week, which the Kenpom computer sees as a win against a top-25 team. They also have home routs of 31, 33, 35, 36, 40 and 45 against non-power conference teams collecting a check.

Or take 9-2 Maryland, which isn’t in the AP top 25 or among the next nine teams receiving votes. But the Terrapins have seven wins against teams in the 200s or 300s by an average of 40.3 points … and currently are No. 8 in the NET.

SDSU, which beat then No. 6-ranked Houston and has played only two teams that are 200 or worse, is 56th.

It’s become a metrics cheat code of sorts for college basketball’s haves, especially since the NET removed the 10-point cap on margin on victory a few years back: Pay a six-figure guarantee to host have-nots during the nonconference, preferably those that have to cross several times zones, and outperform the computer’s expectations. That’s often worth more than felling a top 25 foe.

The opposite can be true, which is the danger of scheduling crosstown schools that sleep in their own beds the night before, ride a bus to the game and bring the wacky unpredictability of a rivalry.

After beating USD by 17 when the computer projected a 24-point margin, SDSU guard Nick Boyd said:

“Obviously we didn’t play our best tonight, but I thought 17 was enough. That’s not a close game, in my opinion. That’s a good margin. … The metrics are the metrics. It’s kind of funny. It’s kind of strange that even if you win, it has to be by a certain amount of points. But I live by the saying that water finds its level, and we’re going to be right where we need to be at the end of the day.”

There are a half-dozen metrics — Kenpom, NET, KPI, BPI, T-rank, SOR — that the men’s NCAA Tournament selection committee considers. It’s just beginning to seep into the women’s game, with the addition of the NET.

Not a fan: SDSU women’s coach Stacie Terry-Hutson.

“I don’t love it,” she said. “Those are the type of games where you have the opportunity to play other kids to help grow their game, to help grow the program. If I have to worry about beating somebody by 20 instead of beating somebody by 10, it’s just a different approach. I know that’s where we’re heading.

“The majority of the young women who are playing are not going to get rich from playing basketball. What I hope to be giving them is a rich experience playing here at San Diego State. I don’t want to have to worry about that other stuff. I know it’s part of the game and I do think about it, but we’re just trying to have a good experience and win games.”

Originally Published: December 20, 2024 at 6:17 PM PST