Three thoughts on San Diego State’s 76-68 loss against UNLV at Viejas Arena on Saturday night:

1. Damage assessment

When you’re projected to win by 12 points and you lose by eight — a 20-point swing — it’s not good.

And it wasn’t for SDSU in the metric world that increasingly defines college basketball.

The Aztecs dropped eight spots in the Kenpom ratings to 43rd. They dropped five spots in the NET to 45th. They’re now 50th in ESPN’s BPI. They’re 47th in SOR (Strength of Record) and 45th in WAB (Wins Against Bubble) in more esoteric analytics that are gaining acceptance.

That still likely gets you an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament if the 68-team field was selected today. The Aztecs still have marquee wins against Creighton and Houston on neutral floors, plus Boise State’s only home loss — and the selection committee typically will excuse the random coffee stain on it.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi had the Aztecs as a No. 9 seed in his projected field last Friday. The UNLV loss probably costs them a seed line to 10.

The last at-large berths generally go to 11 seeds, so the Aztecs are probably just above the bubble. One more stumble, though, and it’s nervous time.

The good news is the Mountain West isn’t as strong as last season (more on that later), and SDSU’s remaining schedule isn’t nearly as daunting as a year ago.

The bad news is the Mountain West isn’t as strong as last season, meaning there are fewer chances to climb in the metrics and build a cushion — and more landmines, as coach Brian Dutcher calls them, that can hurt you even in victory.

There are 13 regular-season games left. The Aztecs likely need to go 10-3 in them to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday, no matter what happens in the conference tournament.

Another issue is the Mountain West standings. Last season, the Aztecs finished fifth but still received a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament — better than the four teams ahead of them — because the conference was so loaded that it received a record five at-large berths, plus automatic qualifier New Mexico.

This year, it’s looking more like two and, maybe, three. The Aztecs are currently in sixth place at 4-3, and the committee may have a harder justification jumping them over two or three teams not in the field.

Nick Boyd is a true student of the game. He understands the metrics and the selection process. He knows how damaging Saturday’s loss was. He’s trying not to think about it.

“I don’t think we should be focused on that as a team,” Boyd said. “We have a lot of work to do as a team. We have three (conference) losses now and we still have a lot of games to play. We have to get bought into just playing San Diego State basketball, especially on the defensive end when our shots aren’t going in.

“We’re not too concerned about our tournament (prospects right now). That will take care of itself.”

2. The O

If the Aztecs are going to make the NCAA Tournament, history says they better fix the offense. Like, now.

Another subpar performance dropped their Kenpom offensive efficiency to 129th nationally, down from 62nd and 75th in the previous two seasons. Over the past 10 tournaments, only six teams have received at-large NCAA Tournament invitations with an offensive efficiency of 129th or worse.

Six. Out of nearly 350 at-large berths.

It’s not like the selection committee is poring over offensive efficiency numbers and picking teams based on it. They don’t have to. The numbers take care of themselves.

Struggle to score effectively, and eventually it catches up with you. There’ll be a 20-point first half at New Mexico or a 23-point first half against UNLV that, as the Aztecs well know, sometimes is too much for even an elite defense to overcome.

The Aztecs ranked 72nd in offensive efficiency over the season’s first month … and 280th since.

Saturday’s game was probably lost in the opening minutes, when nine of SDSU’s first 10 shot attempts were behind the 3-point line.

The Aztecs’ first five shots were all missed 3s. It got better in the second half, from 3 of 16 behind the arc to 6 of 12. By then, though, it was too late.

“We got a little discouraged,” said Boyd, who had 14 of his 16 points in the second half. “We got a lot of wide-open looks to start the game. I wouldn’t say it’s youth, but when you get wide-open looks and you continue to miss, miss, miss, miss, miss, it can be daunting sometimes. A veteran team knows how to push through that and we’re still learning how to do so.

“I think we got a little bit tight, our energy dropped a little bit on defense and we had a couple mistakes that came from our inability not to hit wide-open shots.”

3. Talent drain

So why is the Mountain West down?

You can find the answer in a recent ESPN article ranking college basketball’s top 50 players. Only one, New Mexico guard Donovan Dent, is currently in the league. Seven used to be:

11. Keshon Gilbert (UNLV to Iowa State): He is averaging 15.4 points per game for the No. 2-ranked Cyclones. The connection is coach TJ Otzelberger, who recruited him to UNLV before leaving for Iowa State.

16. Graham Ike (Wyoming to Gonzaga): The 6-foot-9, 245-pound post has been a beast in his second season with the No. 16 Bulldogs, averaging 17.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game.

25. JT Toppin (New Mexico to Texas Tech): The Mountain West Freshman of the Year jumped into the transfer portal at the last moment after receiving a reported $1 million-plus from Tech, where he’s averaging 16.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game.

29. Darrion Williams (Nevada to Texas Tech): He averages 15.6 points and 4.7 assists per game.

30. John Tonje (Colorado State to Missouri to Wisconsin): He initially committed to New Mexico for his sixth season, then the Badgers swooped in with a better offer. He’s averaging 17.1 points per game and dropped 41 on Arizona.

45. Chad Baker-Mazara (SDSU to a Florida JC to Auburn): The Mountain West Sixth man of the Year left SDSU because of academic issues, rehabilitated his grades at a JC, then transferred to Auburn. He’s become a key player for the No. 1 Tigers, scoring between seven and 20 points in every game.

47. Lamont Butler (SDSU to Kentucky): His offensive numbers are up, to 13.6 points on 39.6% 3-point shooting for the No. 8 Wildcats after never averaging double figures and shooting 32.1% in his four years at SDSU.

The result of the talent drain: The average NET ranking for the Mountain West is 124, down from 103 at this time last year. Six teams finished inside the top 40 last season; no teams are there now. And 10 of the conference’s 11 teams have worse NET rankings than last season.

“That’s just the nature of college athletics right now,” Dutcher said. “You can’t obsess about it. You wish those well who want to venture out somewhere else and hope they have great experiences, and you try to find those that you can help develop and aspire to great things in your program.”